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The decision made after the India’s cabinet committee meeting on security on Wednesday comes in response to the Pahalgam attack, killing 26 people.
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Mint said India’s move to change the water as a strategic tool, examines legal arguments behind suspension, and explains why Pakistan can have limited rooms to retaliate.
A brief history of the treaty
Signed in 1960 by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, IWT was broke into a broker by the World Bank and remains one of the world’s most permanent water-sharing agreements. It controls the use of the Indus River system, which originates in Tibet and flows from India to Pakistan.
The roots of the treaty returned to British India, which created a huge irrigation network in Punjab and Sindh. After partition in 1947, India maintained control upwards, while Pakistan inherited a lot of Downstream Canal Infrastructure. A temporary stagnation agreement continued to flow water till 31 March 1948. When India briefly suspended the supply, Pakistan demanded international arbitration, inspiring the World Bank to intervene.
After nearly a decade of negotiations, IWT was signed on September 19, 1960. Under its terms, India was given special rights over three Eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlage – while Pakistan was given control over three western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenb. The Permanent Indus Commission was established to solve data-sharing and disputes.
How does the treaty work
The IWT divides six rivers of the Indus basin into two groups. India has full authority over three Eastern rivers, while western rivers are largely reserved for Pakistan. However, India is allowed to use non-individual use of Western rivers-as under hydropower power generation, domestic use, and limited irrigation-strict technical parameters.
The treaty includes 12 articles and several attachments that expand the rules of water use, the lack of design for infrastructure projects and the dispute solution mechanism. It establishes the Permanent Indus Commission to oversee the implementation, appoints a neutral specialist for technical disagreement, and establishes a court of arbitration for legal disputes – plays a facilitative role in all three with the World Bank.
Last flashpoint
Although IWT has tolerated as a rare example of cooperation between India and Pakistan, stress has sometimes erupted. After the 2016 Uri terror attack, India said it would “review” the treaty. After the 2019 Pulwama attack, India accelerated dam projects such as Shahpur Kandi and Ujha, which reduced the water shortage in Pakistan.
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Pakistan has consistently objected to Indian hydroelectric projects on Western rivers – such as claiming Kindinganga and Rathal – that they violate the terms of the treaty. These disputes led to arbitration proceedings and expert level talks. In 2023, India formally issued notices to Pakistan, first demanded amendment amendment, then reviewed, indicated a deep dissatisfaction with the mechanism of the treaty.
Validity of suspension
The IWT lacks a exhaust segment, which makes it binding until the two agreed to amend or abolish – inspire India to “suspend” instead of formally withdrawing.
Legal experts told Mint that India could cite Vienna Convention on the Law of Tribes (1969), which allows the suspension or termination of treaties in extraordinary conditions such as a fundamental change in material violations or conditions.
“These grounds have also been accepted in the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Standards Operations (SOP) at the conclusion of international treaties,” Rohit Jain, Manager at Singhania & Company Rohit Jain said how “Guidelines” implements the provisions of Vienna Convention to India in practice. ,
“Vienna is a primary international legal structure to control convention treaties, and many of its principles are considered customary international laws. This means that they are applicable, even though a country is not a formal signature. Suspension is a temporary measure, but if challenged, India recently applied extraordinary circumstances of terrorist attacks.
However, it is important that this does not result in water flow in Pakistan – one of the basic conditions of the treaty is immediately interrupted or impaired, said Shenin Parikh, partner (international mediation), Siril Amarchand Magaldas.
Parakh said, “As things are standing, due to the absence of only one of the states allowing only one of the states to get out of the treaty, legal technology is something that India indicated that it is ready to deal with more and more good and public safety in front of terrorist threats.” “We should also remember that last year India had allegedly issued a formal notice to Pakistan, seeking a review and amendment of the treaty due to the fundamental change of circumstances, showing that India’s approach is consistent on the need for alignment again.”
why it matters
India’s strategic leverage is clear: it can block inspections, ignore the previous dam design restrictions, and now the reservoir can carry out flushing – the dam is important for efficiency. These actions can disrupt the flow of water, especially during the susceptible period of Pakistan’s sowing season, potentially affects agricultural production.
However, experts have warned that there is a lack of infrastructure to completely divert the flow of the western river in India, and long -term effects will require significant investment.
Shweta Singh, Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations of South Asian University, highlighted the widespread implications of India’s move. He said, “India has put the Indus Water Treaty in Abhay … While it can provide a short -term diplomatic benefit to India, especially if it prevents the flow of water for Pakistan’s irrigation and drinking needs, then there is a need to drink during the summer months, it may not be the best long -term strategic move,” he said.
He said, “Water, and especially IWT cannot be seen narrowly. This decision cannot send the correct signal for the transboundary river cooperation in the region.” “In addition, while India is Pakistan in an upper-breed position, it is a middle-class state in the large Indus basin. China, which controls the headwater of both the Indus and Brahmaputra, can apply the same argument against India in future conflicts,” Singh took care.
Singh further said that there is a lack of infrastructure in India at present to completely turn the natural flow of Indus. Efforts before the time of doing this can cause flooding in Indian regions. He said that in view of the topography of the region, the construction of adequate water storage infrastructure will not be an easy task in the near future.
Why does it matter to Pakistan
Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus system exists. The River Basin supports 90% of its agriculture, contributes about a quarter of GDP, and supports power hydropower projects such as Mangala and Tarbela. A 2021 World Bank report warned 32% water shortage by 2025.
Any disruption for the Indus – especially during the growing season – food insecurity, lack of energy and further can deepen Pakistan’s economic crisis. Cities like Lahore, Karachi and Multan also rely on the basin for drinking water and industrial use.
What will happen next?
India’s move is likely to pay international attention. While Pakistan has not yet responded yet, it can contact the World Bank, United Nations, or even for the Justice of International Court of Court. If India works beyond suspension – such as by removing water – it can be seen as a violation of the treaty.
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Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar on Wednesday spoke to a private television channel late, called India’s approach “immature” and “haste”, Press Trust of India Told, citing Dawn.
For now, suspension sends a clear message: India is ready to challenge long-standing norms, even using political treaty such as water-sharing to increase the cost of terrorism.
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