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(Bloomberg) — Canada’s Conservative Party has won a special election in a central Toronto district, dealing a major blow to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party ahead of next year’s national election.
Voters in Toronto—Saint Paul’s elected Conservative candidate Don Stewart to the House of Commons, winning a seat that has voted Liberal in every election since 1993. Stewart won 42% of the vote, defeating Liberal candidate Leslie Church, who received just over 40%, according to preliminary Elections Canada data.
While the result will not change the balance of power in Ottawa, it is seen as a crucial litmus test for Trudeau. Monday’s defeat shows that with Trudeau’s popularity waning and the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, leading in the polls, even his traditional strongholds could be at risk.
The Liberals won the seat by over 10,000 votes in the 2021 election.
“This changes everything for the Liberals and the prime minister,” Scott Reid, a one-time ally of former prime minister Paul Martin, said on the social media platform X. “If St. Paul’s is unsafe, there’s no such thing as safe.”
The loss is likely to increase pressure on the embattled prime minister to step down before the next election. The Liberals have consistently won big victories in Canada’s largest city, helping the party stay in power since 2015. But Poilievre’s Conservatives have built a double-digit lead in polling, and would be on track to win a majority government if those numbers hold in national polling.
The next election is scheduled to be held by October 2025, but the date could change.
The Conservatives ran a campaign focused on the Liberals’ economic record. Canada’s economy is growing at a sluggish pace, housing is unaffordable for many, and high interest rates are still deterring borrowers.
The party’s focus was also on the Israel–Hamas war, trying to win the support of the Jewish population, which makes up about 11% of the district’s population. The Conservatives have repeatedly accused Trudeau of taking too soft a stance in supporting Israel and failing to tackle anti-Semitism at home.
For conservatives, the win is a sign that Poilievre can compete in urban districts they have long viewed as too liberal for them.
“There’s been a lot of talk about how Poilievre can’t appeal to these areas because he’s too conservative, too angry, or there might be some other reason,” said Ginny Roth, a partner at Crestview Strategy and a former adviser to Poilievre. “Turns out, that’s not true.”
Monday’s results showed the Conservatives received about 2,000 more votes in St. Paul than they did in the 2021 election, while the number of Liberal supporters declined sharply. “This is not just a loss for the Liberals, it’s a win for the Conservatives,” Roth said.
Church, a former chief of staff to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, held the lead for most of the night, but Stewart pulled ahead as vote counting continued into the morning.
The Toronto—St. Paul’s seat was previously held by Carolyn Bennett, a Liberal Party veteran and former cabinet minister, but she later resigned the seat to become Canada’s ambassador to Denmark.
–With assistance from Doug Alexander.
(Updates with additional comments from a political analyst and former adviser to the Conservative Party leader)
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