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According to estimates by scientists at the UK Met Office and University of Exeter, in a landscape with a very high level of greenhouse gases, the global warming will make the North Atlantic oscillation almost three times larger than before the end of the century.
Such intensity of northern European weather patterns would make the area more fertile for severe storms during winter, lead researcher Dag Smith, who is the lead of long -term climate prediction in the UK Met office.
“Stormy, wet situation will be more frequent,” he said. “This does not mean that we will not get the opposite years, but they are just expecting to be more often.”
Computer simulation run by researchers showed that the North Atlantic atmospheric pattern is weak in low emission scenarios. Smith said that this means that reducing emissions is a clear way towards limiting the future risks of damage caused by patterns fuel by pattern.
While the annual variability can occur, the cost of damage from the weather and climate related disasters is expected to grow across Europe, the fastest-warm continent of the planet. A study by the European Environment Agency found that climate -related storms and floods left European Union countries with € 35.3 billion in economic loss in 2023.
The North Atlantic oscillation is a C-so-so variation under atmospheric air pressure located almost between Azoras and Iceland. It affects other important systems for the season of Europe, including the Atlantic meridial overturning circulation (AMOC), the flow of the ocean that brings heat to the northeastern parts of the continent.
A previous study by the UK Met Office and the University of Exeter disputed a long -held fear that climate change would have a quick, total collapse of AMOC. According to Smith, in this latest research, conclusions lead that scene back and forth.
Such more stories are available on bloomberg.com
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