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In an exclusive interview with news agency PTI, political strategist Prashant Kishor made a “surprising” prediction for Bengal in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He said, “…BJP is going to become the number one party in West Bengal.”
before this, AyraNews24x7 Mega Opinion Poll 2024 It also predicted that the BJP, led by opposition leader Suvendu Adhikari in Bengal, could win 25 out of 42 seats in the state. Meanwhile, polls indicate that TMC may get 17 seats.
India TV-CNX opinion poll Very Were in the same line. It suggests that BJP is likely to win 22 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal, while TMC may emerge victorious on 19 seats.
opposite of this, ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll He said that TMC is likely to be on top in terms of seats in the state. According to the survey, TMC may win 23 seats, while BJP may lag on 19 seats.
BJP vs TMC in Bengal: What can help BJP gain seats?S
1. Sandeshkhali incident: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP are attacking TMC over the Sandeshkhali incident, for which a TMC leader has been held responsible.
TMC leader Shajahan Sheikh and his associates were accused of sexual harassment and land grabbing in Sandeshkhali.
PM Modi and BJP made the incident one of the election issues in Bengal and held TMC responsible for the “atrocities on mothers and sisters” there. “The court itself has to interfere in everything here, it is the TMC syndicate that rules here,” PM Modi said during a rally in Jalpaiguri.
2. TMC contesting elections alone in Bengal: Despite being a key ally of the opposition India faction, Mamata Banerjee’s party has decided to contest the 2024 elections alone. The TMC cited the Congress’s delay in finalizing the seat-sharing agreement before announcing candidates for all 42 Lok Sabha seats.
This may affect the perception of the strength of the Indian faction. The Congress had earlier called Mamata Banerjee “one of the co-architects” of the opposition alliance that aims to take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. However, Mamata Banerjee’s exit from it in the state may impact the “vision” of the Indian faction and raise questions about whether the alliance is strong enough to run the country.
3. PM Modi Star Campaigner: Political experts today have considered Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a winning factor for BJP. On most occasions the party has fought and won elections on the influence of PM Modi. He seems to be keeping the party far ahead of its rivals in the states.
4. Effects of CAA Implementation: The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections could boost the BJP’s chances in some constituencies – especially those constituencies with a large number of Matuas, Dalit Bengali Hindus and Scheduled Caste groups who are currently in power. Have migrated in. -day bangladesh.
Hindu refugees from Bangladesh form the Matua community in Bengal. This community forms a significant part of the Scheduled Caste population of West Bengal. It had termed the day of CAA implementation as its “second Independence Day”.
Bengal BJP feels the CAA move will not only bring the party closer to the refugee community, especially the Matua community in the state, but will also help in consolidating the majority votes, news agency PTI reported.
Union minister and Matua community leader Shantanu Thakur was quoted as saying, “The implementation of the CAA will have a direct impact on at least 10-12 constituencies and we are confident of winning all the seats dominated by the Matua and refugee community.”
5. Dissatisfaction against TMC over corruption: PM Modi and other BJP leaders have repeatedly attacked TMC over corruption in the state. PM Modi said in Krishnanagar on March 2, “The priority for TMC is not the development of Bengal, but corruption, nepotism and betrayal. TMC wants to keep the people of Bengal poor so that its politics and game can continue.”
Apart from TMC stalwart Shahjahan Shaikh, who is facing charges of “sexual harassment and land grabbing” in Sandeshkhali, several TMC leaders are under investigation by central investigative agencies over money laundering and corruption charges.
In 2022, ED almost recovered Rs 50 crore in cash along with jewelery was found in two flats of Arpita Mukherjee, a close aide of suspended TMC leader Partha Mukherjee, in south-west Kolkata and Belghoria.
Is BJP a threat? But TMC cannot be ignored: What the figures show
TMC has been winning in West Bengal since 2011. It ousted the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M)-led Left Front government, which was in power in West Bengal uninterrupted from 1977 to May 2011.
In 2019 Lok Sabha elections TMC won 22 out of 42 seats, securing about 43.5 percent vote share. BJP won 18 seats (40.5 percent votes) and Congress won two seats.
Exactly two years later, in 2021 west bengal assembly elections, TMC had won 215 out of total 294 assembly seats in the state. The vote share of Mamata Banerjee’s party was 48.5 percent. BJP has won 77 seats.
1.TMC vs BJP performance in state elections
The BJP seems to have made some gains in West Bengal since 2016. Comparison of this with the 2016 assembly elections shows that the BJP’s seats increased from three in the 2016 state elections to 77 in the 2021 elections.
In the 2016 state elections, TMC had won 211 seats and in 2021, the party’s seats increased marginally to 215.
2. Performance of TMC vs BJP in Lok Sabha elections
At the national level too, a slight increase in BJP’s seats was seen in Bengal. BJP had won two seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, it won 18 seats in the 2019 elections.
While BJP gained some numbers, TMC lost some seats. 2014 was the first Lok Sabha election after TMC came to power in West Bengal in 2011. In the 2014 general elections, TMC had won 34 seats, while in 2019 it won 22 seats.
Mamta is wooing minorities and migrants
Like every other election, this year too, Mamata Banerjee sees a significant vote bank in migrant workers and minorities in the state. She has been opposing the CAA, calling it a “trap to turn legitimate citizens into foreigners”.
Researchers told practical Most migrant voters were “apprehensive of the BJP’s advocacy for the CAA and the National Register of Citizens (NRC)”. Meanwhile, TMC leaders are expected to leverage the CAA to highlight their stand against the BJP’s alleged “anti-Bengali” sentiments.
This is contrary to the BJP’s hope to woo the Matua community and Dalit Bengali Hindus – thus dividing their target voters.
News agency PTI quoted a TMC leader as saying that the implementation of the CAA will help them consolidate minority votes.
The leader said, “Minorities are wary of CAA implementation. This will also help us get the support of a large section of the Bengali elite, who have moved away from the party over corruption issues and are marginalized who do not have proper documentation.” There is a shortage.”
Meanwhile, experts said the CAA issue could impact Matua-dominated seats like Bongaon, Ranaghat (currently with BJP) and Krishnanagar and parts of refugee-dominated seats.
“But they also hinted that there could be a knock-on effect in minority-dominated seats in South and North Bengal, where the BJP had won in 2019,” he said.
Lok Sabha elections are to be held in seven phases this year. Voting will begin on April 19 and the results will be declared on June 4.
(with inputs from agencies)
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Published: April 13, 2024, 06:24 am IST
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