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The revenue base of the state is from 2.4 trillion Rs 2.6 trillion, but about 60% of its revenue receipts are pre-committed to salary, pension and interest payments, government data shows. The fiscal deficit is already putting pressure on the Centre’s 3% limit. According to experts, this severely restricts the scope for discretionary spending on new welfare schemes, government appointments or capital-intensive projects.
Even recent incentives from the Center provide only partial relief. The 15th Finance Commission increased Bihar’s share in central taxes from 9.665% to 10.058% for 2021-26 and grants-in-aid to rural local bodies for 2024-25 and 2025-26, taking into account population, inequality and economic performance. But this influx is minor compared to the scale of the commitments in the NDA’s manifesto or Bihar election manifesto.
promises vs reality
The manifesto promises 10 million jobs, seven new expressways, several upgraded airports and large agriculture and women-focused livelihood programmes. Experts said turning these promises into deliverable programs will require unprecedented financial engineering, massive central support and strong administrative capacity.
Manoranjan Sharma, chief economist at credit rating agency Infomix Ratings Ltd, said, “The NDA’s sweeping victory will provide Bihar with political stability and closer rapport with the Centre, which will significantly improve its prospects of delivering massive infrastructure and welfare commitments including 10 million jobs, multiple expressways and airports and key women-centric livelihood programmes.”
“However, converting these ambitious promises, especially the promise of 10 million jobs, into sustained economic gains will require careful sequencing, adequate central and PPP (public-private partnership) financing, strict fiscal discipline and strong administrative capacity,” Sharma said. “Otherwise, the state risks launching costly, short-term schemes that could deepen fiscal stress. The key implementation challenges are: land acquisition, environmental clearance, project management capacity, and the broader issue of prioritizing quality over quantity in new employment.”
Sharma warned that without strong private sector integration, many of the promised jobs could be low-paid or temporary, or tied to wealth-building schemes with limited long-term impact. “Ultimately, delivery at this scale will depend on large central infusion, strong private investment, innovative financing models and prudent financial management as the commitments far exceed Bihar’s existing financial capacity,” he said.
The economic pressure from infrastructure promises will be particularly severe. cost of expressway ₹150-200 crore per kilometre, so the seven new corridors are much more than Bihar can finance from its own capital outlay and borrowing limit, according to PRS Legislative Research, a non-profit that analyzes government budgets.
Upgrading airports and expanding agricultural infrastructure will further increase fiscal pressures. Experts said implementing these on a larger scale will depend on central co-financing, PPP, special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and concessional loans, each of which is vulnerable to delays due to land acquisition challenges, weak contractor capacity and long-standing project governance issues with the state.
Government appointments are also disrupted. The target of 10 million jobs depends on a combination of government recruitment, private sector placements and self-employment schemes. But even a modest increase in the state payroll would lock Bihar into decades-long salary and pension obligations. Budget data from PRS Legislative Research shows that committed spending in recent years was 40–65% of revenue receipts, leaving limited room for recurring liabilities without new taxes, offsetting cuts or higher borrowing.
The administrative churn of the state increases its fiscal stress. PRS analysis showed that in 2020–25, about 60 elected representatives served as ministers, with about 20 departments headed by four or more ministers. Portfolios like Tourism, Law, Disaster Management and Revenue and Land Reforms had six or more ministers each. Only the Chief Minister and two others remained in office during the entire five-year term. Meanwhile, according to the PRS, 84% of ministers from the Legislative Assembly and two ministers from the Legislative Council are contesting re-election in this election, indicating both continuity and instability in the administrative structure.
‘Fundamental change in mentality’
Nishant Kumar, associate professor at the Center for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, cited the announcement of the plans The figure of Rs 4 trillion in the last few months became the reason for Bihar to once again show confidence in NDA. “This has brought about a fundamental change in the mindset of the people of Bihar,” he said, outlining the expectations from the next government.
“The real game-changer is Women of the state were given Rs 10,000 to become financially independent,” Kumar said. “Nitish Kumar has been working on schemes for women empowerment since 2006. The current solution really strikes a chord with women voters. She has been very successful in consolidating the votes behind the NDA.”
Amit No. “The results in Bihar have been as expected and the continuation of the government there will help the state become politically and economically stronger at the national level,” said Singh, associate professor at the Special Center for National Security Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Citing that India is the only economy globally that is showing consistent growth despite the current global headwinds and geopolitical disturbances, Singh said, “Bihar can also take advantage of this to increase its own manufacturing and emerge as a major national hub. This time, there will be a definite change in the way Bihar achieves its importance at the national level.”
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