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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine is more than just a balancing act. It is a timely strategic move that reflects India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy on the ground and signals India’s ability to manage both Russia and Ukraine’s close Western allies, such as the United States. Mint Let me tell you.
What is the background of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine?
Modi is the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine, 30 years after India first established diplomatic ties. The visit comes against the backdrop of his visit to Russia in July, which was seen as disappointing by Ukraine and unnecessary by the US and its Western allies. However, India has not hesitated to declare its closeness to Russia, while at the same time stressing the need for dialogue and diplomacy to end the war.
This visit should be seen as an effort in that direction. Moreover, it is a step towards reconnecting with Central Europe, which remains strategic for a rising India.
What’s on the agenda?
India has said that the main focus of this visit is on all aspects of India-Ukraine relations, including agriculture, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, health and education, defense and people-to-people relations. However, most eyes are on whether India will present itself as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Or will it refrain from making any specific proposals for a peace settlement and will limit itself to underlining the importance of dialogue and diplomacy.
In this direction, India has also demonstrated its willingness to provide support that may be necessary not only to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, but also in Ukraine’s recovery process.
What role can India play in a possible end to the war?
Prime Minister Modi has clearly underlined the futility of war, and has emphasised dialogue and diplomacy for a possible end to the war. India has not announced a peace plan. Nevertheless, it has demonstrated its willingness to play the role of peacemaker – a role that would enhance its global standing if it did. However, India did not participate in the Ukraine peace summit held in Switzerland in June, nor did it support the joint statement.
Why are Ukraine and Europe important for a rising India?
India has clearly outlined Europe as a foreign policy priority and central to its emerging power status. Ukraine remains the ‘heartland’ in terms of India’s engagement in sub-regions within Europe, particularly Central Europe. India’s position on Ukraine is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it demonstrates its ability to navigate its autonomy and strategically balance its interests. On the other hand, it also underlines its potential as a potential peacemaker as an emerging power, given its proximity to Russia and its ability for the US to be a potential counterbalance to China in Asia.
Why will the US, China and Russia keep a close eye on this visit?
Ukraine and its Western allies, especially the US, believe India has more influence over Russia than any other Western power. Against this backdrop, Modi’s visit has been welcomed by the US and is seen as a sign of the global community coming together on Ukraine.
Also read: Mint Explainer: India’s diplomatic and trade challenges in a tempestuous neighbourhood
Russia will be watching this closely. Despite heavy pressure and criticism from the West, India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian arms, and has sought to take advantage of cheap Russian oil as the US and European countries seek to limit the Russian energy sector’s access to global markets. China is closely watching India’s visit and its potential role as a mediator in this conflict.
Shweta Singh is an Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations, South Asian University.
Also read: Sakhalin standoff: India eyes equity oil, Russia eyes dividends
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