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Results on Friday indicate that Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer is set to become the next head of Number 10 Downing Street, the office of the British prime minister.
After 14 years of Conservative or Tory rule, Britain is going to have a Labour government, what will this mean for India? How will the incoming Labour government deal with issues like trade, immigration and security with India? Mint It looks at ways in which India-UK relations might develop under the Prime Ministership of Keir Starmer.
historical context
Historically, Indians have had a favourable view of the Labour Party, beginning with the tenure of Prime Minister Clement Attlee after India’s independence in 1947.
Notably, some of the earliest resolutions by the United Nations Security Council on Jammu and Kashmir in favour of Pakistan over India were also passed during Attlee’s tenure between 1945 and 1951.
The first UN Security Council resolution on Kashmir in January 1948 equated Pakistan with India, which according to India was the invader who had sent Pashtun tribes into Jammu and Kashmir.
The UN Security Council resolution called on India and Pakistan to “take immediately all measures within their power to improve the situation and refrain from making, doing or causing to be done any statement or permitting any action to be taken which could worsen the situation.”
Relations between India and the Labour Party have been tumultuous in recent times. The visit of Queen Elizabeth II to India and Pakistan in 1997, to mark 50 years of independence of the two countries, was marred by comments by the then British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook offering to mediate on the Kashmir issue.
New Delhi, which has insisted that the Kashmir issue will be resolved bilaterally between India and Pakistan, is naturally upset by these comments.
In 2008, then Labour foreign secretary David Miliband also angered India when he urged New Delhi to resolve the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan to prevent attacks like the November 26-29, 2008 terror attacks in Mumbai.
Miliband had refrained from directly blaming Pakistan for the attack, though he did name the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba group behind the terror attack. India had hit back, saying the Mumbai attacks were not related to Jammu and Kashmir but were part of “global terrorism”.
Many things have changed since then. In 2022, India overtook Britain to become the world’s fifth-largest economy. According to analysts, the Indian community in Britain numbers 1.6 million. It is considered educated, prosperous and politically active. India is also the second-largest investor in Britain. It is estimated that about 900 Indian-owned companies employ about 110,000 people. Britain, on its part, sees India as a key market, especially after its exit from the European Union.
Last week, human rights lawyer turned Labour leader Starmer visited the Swaminarayan temple in north London and called for eradicating so-called “Hinduphobia” from Britain. He also expressed solidarity with the British Hindu community over recent incidents of vandalism.
Analyst C. Raja Mohan wrote in an article Indian Express This week, said the outgoing Tory group has ensured they have laid a solid foundation for India-UK relations for Starmer – by freeing it from issues like Kashmir and framing them in the context of the Indo-Pacific. However, it remains to be seen how things work out under a Labour government in the days to come.
Free trade agreements
A key issue on the agenda of India and Britain’s new Labour government will be to work out a trade agreement. Negotiations have been going on for the past two years, with the aim of obtaining mutual tariff exemptions on a range of goods, including cars, clothing, alcoholic beverages and medical equipment.
However, India may face pressure from Labour negotiators on climate issues. India has reportedly sought exemptions from the carbon tax that Britain plans to introduce following the EU’s example. India argues that imposing a carbon tax could eliminate many concessions agreed in the FTA.
Mobility and immigration
Immigration could be a problem area in the FTA talks. Despite clear differences between the Tory and Labour parties on policies, they agreed on the need to restrict immigration. India wants temporary visas for its service sector workers under the FTA.
India has a large young population and is negotiating mobility and migration agreements with various countries, including Europe, to integrate its youth into the global workforce.
Many Indian students who come to study in the UK are also expected to work there for a certain period of time to repay their student loans. And there have been threats from the British government from time to time to cancel this facility.
Former prime minister Theresa May introduced the rule in 2012 as home secretary, forcing foreign students to leave the country four months after completing their degree. It was overturned by Boris Johnson’s government in 2019.
Mobility and migration have become a “political issue” in the UK (remember the Tory plan to send illegal migrants back to Rwanda), so India should be prepared for some hard bargaining on this issue.
Kashmir issue
The relationship between the Modi government and the new Starmer government in India will also depend on the Labour Party’s approach to India’s security concerns. New Delhi has traditionally been wary of the Labour Party’s tilt towards Pakistan and its stance on the Kashmir dispute.
A major reason for this is the presence of a large number of Pakistani immigrants in the UK, particularly from Mirpur in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
They have traditionally voted en masse for Labour, while British people of Indian origin have voted for the Tories and Labour. It is said that the Mirpuri vote could tip the balance in 30-40 of the 650 seats in the UK Parliament. It is against this backdrop that former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn criticised India’s move in 2019 to remove Article 370 of the Constitution of India, which gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir.
Under Corbyn’s leadership, a motion was passed at a Labour Party conference in Brighton in September 2019 supporting “international intervention in Kashmir and calling for a UN-led referendum”. India condemned the move.
Incidentally, 2024 will mark 40 years since Indian diplomat Ravindra Mhatre, who was serving as assistant commissioner at the Indian Consulate in Birmingham, was kidnapped and killed by terrorists seeking the separation of Kashmir from India. Mhatre’s abductors had demanded a ransom of 1 million pounds besides the release of terrorist Maqbool Butt and nine others. The killing was allegedly ordered by Amanullah Khan, the then chief of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front.
Khalistan controversy
Another security concern for India is the growing activity of Sikh separatists who are demanding a separate state of Khalistan from India’s Punjab. In recent years, protests have increased. In March 2023, the Indian High Commission in London was attacked by a group of about 50 people who entered the lawn of the High Commission and removed the national flag. According to news reports, the Indian government lodged a strong protest with the UK authorities and the UK police arrested one person.
Despite the problem areas, there is much India and the UK can do together. One of these is the defence sector, where India wants to transform itself into a major exporter of military hardware.
Analysts believe that collaboration between companies from both countries could lead to a win-win situation for both countries’ economies. The pharmaceutical sector is a prime example of this, with the Serum Institute of India Private Limited partnering with the UK’s AstraZeneca to make the Covishield vaccine in 2021.
Another promising area is the small and medium scale sector, where mutual benefits can be achieved through partnerships. The India-UK Roadmap 2030 outlined by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in May 2021 elevated the India-UK relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). The roadmap identifies several key areas for cooperation, including trade, climate, science and technology, and defence.
But for all this to succeed, the two countries will need to carefully manage the so-called pressure points in the relationship, which will require sensitivity and, at times, skillful diplomacy.
Elizabeth Roche is Associate Professor at Jindal Global University, Haryana.
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