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But Modi faces a reduced mandate for his Bharatiya Janata Party, meaning his next government will likely be subject to the pressures of coalition politics, and may have to turn its focus inward.
In his first speech after the Lok Sabha election results on Tuesday, Modi stressed that India will continue to look forward, try to integrate into global value chains and help countries in need.
To the world, Modi is someone they have associated with over the last decade, someone they have done business with, and are therefore certain to work with.
The next government will face significant demands as well as challenges in terms of foreign policy. But unlike the last national election, when the BJP won 272 seats in the Lok Sabha on its own, it will now have to rely on its allies in the National Democratic Alliance to advance its agenda.
Mint This book provides an in-depth study of the potential impact of coalition politics on India’s foreign policy.
Modi, Shah, Jaishankar: A formidable trio
It would be a mistake to underestimate the Modi-Amit Shah duo. Both are shrewd politicians and adept at handling coalition dynamics. In his post-results speech, Modi assured that his third term would see impressive decisions that would take the country towards development. Despite a reduced mandate, he has offered stability and predictability.
And S. Jaishankar, considered one of India’s most capable foreign ministers, strengthens the team. Jaishankar, who played a key role in keeping fuel prices stable by securing Russian oil despite international criticism, is known to have a strong rapport with the prime minister.
Foreign policy experts will also be keeping an eye on which international leaders the Indian government will invite to preside over Modi’s swearing-in ceremony as Prime Minister.
Following the 2014 national election, his first term as prime minister, Modi invited the leaders of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), India’s closest neighbours.
In 2019 too, Modi invited the leaders of Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan – known as BIMSTEC – signalling the primacy of neighbourhood and economic diplomacy as well as connectivity in Modi’s second term.
Whom the Modi government invites to inaugurate the next government will determine the priorities and challenges of Modi 3.0.
Foreign policy challenges
India’s foreign policy will continue to deal with significant challenges, including uncertainties posed by the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, technological disruptions such as artificial intelligence and semiconductor development, and the growing confrontation between the US and China. These issues require a comprehensive government approach.
Amid all this, prioritizing neighborhoods remains crucial.
A peaceful periphery is essential for India’s growth and ambition to play a bigger role on the global stage. South Asia has traditionally been considered India’s sphere of influence, but China is steadily increasing its presence through infrastructure projects, economic ties, and aid.
Additionally, some smaller neighbouring countries take advantage of the rivalry between India and China to their own advantage.
However, recently, India’s relations with many of its neighbours have stabilised, thanks to the smart diplomacy of Jaishankar and his team in South Block.
Strengthening ties with Sri Lanka
For example, take the case of Sri Lanka. India’s timely assistance to this southern neighbour during its economic crisis, amounting to about $4 billion, was very significant.
This assistance included loans for essential goods, currency support, and facilitating access to loans from the International Monetary Fund, while China appeared passive.
This timely intervention has established India as a protector in Colombo’s hour of crisis.
Rebuilding trust with Nepal
Recently, India has been focusing on providing development assistance to Nepal, and has been working diligently to complete committed projects, following the 2015 earthquake. A serious effort in 2015 to encourage Nepal to amend its constitution to make it more inclusive of Tharus, Madhesis and tribals was met with resistance from the Nepalese.
India is believed to have blocked key supplies, including fuel, during a crucial period when Nepal was still recovering from the 2015 earthquake, souring sentiments towards New Delhi.
India is currently focusing on confidence building through its aid projects and has deliberately kept a low profile by staying away from Nepal’s political turmoil.
Maintaining strong ties with Bhutan
India’s relations with Bhutan have been close and stable. Modi’s visit to Bhutan after the announcement of national elections in India underlines this relationship.
In the near future, India will have to focus its efforts on helping Bhutan in the Gelephu Mindfulness City project launched last year. The project is seen as an attempt by Bhutan to take advantage of opportunities for economic transformation in its immediate and extended neighbourhood – providing better jobs and fulfilling the aspirations of young Bhutanese. Another issue that India will be keeping an eye on is the border agreement talks between China and Bhutan.
Deepening ties with Bangladesh
India has invested heavily in its relations with Bangladesh, especially over the last decade.
In 2015 India settled its land border with Bangladesh, including an exchange zone that saw Indian enclaves in Bangladesh and vice versa. This removed an irritation that had been there for decades. Since then political relations between India and Bangladesh have warmed considerably. India has provided Bangladesh with $8 billion in line of credit; economic ties are at their lowest in decades; connectivity has been established in terms of railways, roads and waterways.
However, the issue of sharing of Teesta river waters still remains controversial. Agreement on this has been a long-standing desire of the Sheikh Hasina government. Any water sharing agreement would require the state of West Bengal to sign it. After the All India Trinamool Congress defeated the BJP in West Bengal in these elections, this will be a tough challenge for India to accomplish.
Resolving challenges with Maldives
Relations between India and the Maldives have been on a slippery slope since the election of President Mohamed Muizzo in 2023 – given Muizzo’s declared policy of maintaining distance from India. Under the previous Solih administration, the Maldives had an “India First” policy which Muizzo has deliberately dismantled.
One of the first steps taken by Muizzu was to expel Indian military personnel involved in medical evacuation activities in the Maldives. He also refused to renew the agreement to conduct hydrographic surveys with India. Along with this, Muizzu has focused on building relations with countries like China and Turkey, India’s strategic rival.
India has adopted a patient approach, closely monitoring developments but maintaining distance. Last month, during Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer’s visit to New Delhi, India extended $50 million in budgetary support to the Maldives.
Managing Instability in Myanmar
Myanmar is in many ways the “problem child” in India’s neighbourhood, especially after the February 2021 coup. India has been urging the junta to restore democracy without drawing attention to its concerns over insurgency in India’s Northeast.
Many groups in states like Mizoram share familial ties with groups standing up to the junta in Myanmar — which is what led to the flood of refugees into India, prompting New Delhi to announce the construction of a border fence.
Instability in Myanmar means that India’s plans to engage with Southeast Asia remain unfulfilled.
Stalled talks with Pakistan
If there is one country in the neighbourhood that India has given up hope on, it is Pakistan. New Delhi has been clear in its stance that Pakistan must renounce terrorism before any dialogue can begin. Pakistan is not willing to change its strategy, so India has shown little interest in holding talks.
Pakistan is currently mired in economic instability, making it difficult for any peace talks to take place. Also, there is always the question of who to negotiate with – the elected political leadership or the military. It is well known that Pakistan’s policy towards India is shaped by its military, which is why some analysts advocate direct talks with the military.
Facing complications with China
Perhaps the most complicated relationship is with China, mainly due to the ongoing military standoff in Ladakh that began in 2020. Since then, relations between the two countries have been in a state of freeze, with economic contact being minimal. India maintains that normalization of relations cannot occur until the process of disengagement and de-escalation is complete.
With the coalition government in New Delhi having a wafer-thin majority, it would be challenging for India to send any significant signal to China to break the deadlock.
Elizabeth Roche is Associate Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Haryana. Views expressed are personal.
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