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Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said Israel will be “punished” for the attack, which destroyed the consulate building and killed at least 13 people. The risk is that this move could significantly escalate conflict in the Middle East and cause even greater damage to Iran. In the crosshairs.
The US and its allies believe a major retaliatory attack by Iran or its various proxies in the region is imminent, according to people familiar with the intelligence. Recent history shows that any attack will be measured against any attack coming from Iran’s adversaries. For example, when the US killed General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Iran opted for non-lethal attacks on military targets.
Read more: Israel-Iran shadow war has reached a risky new phase: QuickTake
In a post to X, Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron said he told Iran’s foreign minister in a call on Thursday that the country should not drag the Middle East into a wider conflict.
Cameron wrote, “I am extremely concerned that miscalculations could lead to further violence. Instead, Iran should work to de-escalate tensions and prevent further attacks.”
In keeping with its usual response to accusations of targeting Iran, Israel did not claim responsibility for the Damascus attack, although it has tried for years to cut off arms supplies to Islamic militant groups through Syria.
Its military campaign in Gaza against Hamas – a group backed by Iran and classified as a terrorist organization by the US and EU – has entered its seventh month and heightened tensions with Hezbollah and the Houthis, other militias allied with Iran. Has gone.
“Iran is in a precarious position – Israel has been betraying itself for some time,” said Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University and a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. It’s damned if it responds and damned if it doesn’t.”
For Iran, there is a risk of distracting the world from Israel’s war in Gaza, which Hamas officials say has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians and increased international and domestic pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A humanitarian crisis is brewing in the enclave and the United Nations has warned that thousands of people are on the brink of famine.
The potential attack by Tehran, which has roiled oil markets, could come in a variety of forms.
total war
Khamenei has said that the Damascus attack was tantamount to an attack on Iranian soil, and the most explosive response would be to attack Israel. This would have the potential to trigger a full-scale war that would likely attract the US and other Israeli allies. One example of Iran attacking Israeli territory came in 2018, when Tehran fired rockets from Syria at the Golan Heights.
Yet if Iran’s leaders were to attempt such a move, their forces would have to outmaneuver Israel’s sophisticated defense systems, according to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
This becomes even more difficult over longer distances, unless complemented by attacks from Hezbollah next door in Lebanon. However, this would risk further conflict between Israel and the group. A lower-key option would be to escalate Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel or Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
“The Iranian systems are very good – there’s no doubt about that – the point is just that the Israeli defense is absolutely extraordinary,” Hinz said. “Still a political and symbolic victory, but it will reduce your deterrent capabilities.”
Israel demonstrated its capabilities by destroying navigation signals in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area a week earlier in preparation for an Iranian attack.
The second option is to target Israeli embassies, which is a tit-for-tat response to the Damascus bombing. But this would be a high-risk move given Iran’s other priorities in the Middle East. Tehran agreed last year to restore diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, for example, ending a seven-year standoff. And while Israel has no embassy in Riyadh, an attack on the Saudi regional ally could create diplomatic problems.
According to Hinz, a non-military attack – through agents or a proxy group – might be more practical, although Iran’s track record of success with similar efforts in the past is poor. “Many of these attacks were prevented by Israeli intelligence,” he said.
military bases
Iran could respond by attacking Israeli or US military targets, as it has done during previous flare-ups. Recently, the US – Israel’s main ally – said Iran-backed militants killed three US service members and wounded 25 others in a drone strike near the Syrian border in January.
Iran holds the US as well as Israel responsible for the Damascus attack because of Washington’s support for the Jewish state. The US took the rare step of contacting Tehran directly to say it was not involved.
Attacks on military targets were Iran’s preferred approach after former US President Donald Trump ordered the killing of General Soleimani. Iran attacked Al Asad airbase in Iraq, wounding more than 100 US soldiers, while suspected Iranian proxies fired rockets at the US Embassy in Baghdad.
“Iran’s response, whether it be self-restraint or an attack through a proxy, does not do much in terms of deterring Israel,” said al-Saif at Kuwait University. “The direct response is its litmus test.”
–With assistance from Fiona MacDonald.
(Updated with quote from UK Foreign Secretary in fourth paragraph.)
More stories like this are available on Bloomberg.com
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Published: April 12, 2024, 03:25 am IST
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