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According to a World Trade Organization (WTO) report, the policy change contributed to a 29% decline in global rice prices in 2025, and helped reduce food inflation, especially in African and Asian countries like Senegal, Benin and Bangladesh, which are heavily dependent on Indian rice.
The WTO report released on November 7, citing the International Grains Council’s Cereals and Oilseeds Index (GOI), said overall global food prices – including rice and other food items – fell 2% year-on-year in 2025, and were down 39% from the 2022 peak, driven by lower grain prices following India’s reversal.
experts peppermint The timing of India’s move was critical, it said, confirming the WTO findings as global grain prices were under pressure from the impact of the Ukraine conflict and higher energy costs.
Between 2022 and 2023, New Delhi had imposed a number of export restrictions to curb inflation – ranging from a 20% duty on milled, unmilled and parboiled rice to a ban on broken and non-Basmati white rice, as well as a minimum export price for Basmati.
These measures were gradually eased and then lifted completely between September 2024 and March 2025.
After the rollback, India’s rice exports to 172 countries rose to 20.1 million tonnes in FY2025, worth about $12.95 billion, according to commerce ministry data. In FY24 the number was 16.35 million tonnes.
The scale of the policy’s impact underlines India’s weight in global rice supply. According to Vijay Setia, director of Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd and former president of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIRIA), New Delhi accounts for about 45% of the world’s rice exports, and any policy change here directly impacts global food prices.
“The easing of export barriers by major suppliers such as India and improvements in food aid commitments by donor countries collectively helped cool food markets,” the WTO said.
According to the international trade body, the total value of global food aid under the Food Aid Convention is set to reach about $7.9 billion in 2023, more than the minimum commitments made by donor countries.
The US was the largest contributor at $3 billion annually, followed by the European Union, Japan and Canada. India, although not a signatory to this convention, contributed indirectly by releasing export volumes that reached food-deficient markets through private and humanitarian channels.
However, the WTO report warns that risks remain to global food price stability, citing climate variability, shipping disruptions and the possibility of renewed export controls in some producing countries. It also said international food prices still remain about 15% above pre-pandemic levels, although well below record highs.
significant supply-side intervention
“India’s lifting of the export ban had both a symbolic and real impact,” said Dattesh Parulekar, assistant professor of international relations at Goa University. “Symbolic, because it showed confidence in domestic production; and substantive because it immediately added liquidity to the global rice trade and reduced import costs for weaker economies.”
According to Chirag Jain, partner and food processing industry leader at consulting firm Grant Thornton India, the WTO findings underline how New Delhi’s decision acted as an important supply-side intervention, reducing tensions in global markets and contributing to a broader softening of food prices, especially in the global South, where rice is a dietary staple and dependence on imports is high.
“This outcome is not accidental but the result of a deliberate policy framework based on dynamic buffer stock management, inflation-sensitive MSP (minimum support price) operations and calibrated export controls that allows India to respond to domestic and international food security imperatives,” Jain said.
Going forward, ARIA’s Setia suggests that the government should allow the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to export its stored grain directly instead of sending it through private players to “make our exports more stable, profitable and responsive to global demand”.
“Such a move could help manage supply more effectively during high-demand periods while ensuring fair prices for both farmers and international buyers,” he said.
Details from WTO report
The 31-page WTO document, which reviews the implementation of the Marrakesh Agreement on the potential negative impacts of agricultural reforms on least developed and net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs), says the easing of restrictions has improved the availability and affordability of basic foods for countries facing import challenges, particularly in Africa and parts of Asia.
The report stressed that India’s action came at a critical time when least developed countries and NFIDCs were struggling with high import bills and limited access to concessional financing.
The report said the changes in India’s rice policy are in line with the broader WTO objectives under the Ministerial Declaration on Emergency Response to Food Insecurity adopted in Geneva in 2022, which calls on members to implement “targeted, proportionate, transparent and temporary” trade measures.
The WTO Secretariat stressed the importance of maintaining stable food aid flows and urged transparency in line with the Nairobi Ministerial Decision on Export Competitiveness.
The WTO Committee on Agriculture also reiterated that countries should implement export restrictions in accordance with Article 12 of the Agreement on Agriculture, which requires prior notification and consultation with affected Members, particularly least-developed and food-importing countries.
It urged members to build on recent positive developments by enhancing cooperation on food security and ensuring timely market data sharing.
peppermint It was reported on September 24 that India, the world’s leading rice exporter, is set to ship a record amount of the grain this season despite severe flooding in Punjab causing damage to crops. The IGC estimates the country will export a record 23.4 million tonnes of rice during the 2025-26 season, up 2% from the previous year.
Strong demand from African countries and improvement in shipments to Asian markets such as the Philippines and Malaysia are expected to boost growth.
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