[ad_1]
The recent assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir have once again raised a question mark on the credibility of exit poll forecasts. Some are alleging that electronic voting machines (EVMs) are not foolproof, or that the Election Commission of India (ECI) and the mainstream media favor the ruling government. The latest round of YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey found that urban Indians are largely divided along party lines on certain questions about the country’s electoral politics.
The survey, conducted in July 2024, a few weeks after the Lok Sabha election results, found that those leaning towards the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had a more positive mindset on these big questions, while Congress supporters showed skepticism.
This was the 12th round of our biennial survey with 10,314 respondents from over 200 towns and cities. The surveys are conducted by Mint in collaboration with survey partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research. Conducted since 2018, the surveys shed light on the beliefs, choices and concerns of India’s young urban population.
In the latest round, 45% of respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996) and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996). About 46% said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was their most preferred party, while 15% said the same for the Congress.
burning question
Did the poll panel perform well in conducting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in a free and fair manner? Nearly three in five (58%) respondents gave a positive assessment, while 42% felt it was low. BJP supporters were the most satisfied, with 67% approving of the ECI’s conduct, while only 46% of Congress supporters were. Among those who support other parties or do not identify with any party, 53% showed satisfaction.
A large proportion (61%) supported the continued use of EVMs, calling the allegations of tampering baseless. The rest were in favor of the paper ballot system because they felt it would be more accurate. Opinions on EVMs again varied depending on political affiliation – BJP supporters (71%) were most positive, while only 46% were Congress supporters. Among others, the majority supported the use of EVMs instead of paper ballots.
Did the media give favorable coverage to the BJP during the election campaign, or did they give fair coverage to all political parties? The respondents were again divided: 54% believed that the media had favored the BJP, while 46% believed that the media coverage was fair to all. Interestingly, 47% of BJP supporters agreed that the media favored their party, while 53% said it gave fair coverage. In contrast, 64% of Congress supporters felt the media was biased; Supporters of other parties (60%) and non-identifiers (57%) also shared this perception.
Are exit polls reliable?
Public opinion was divided on the veracity of the exit poll projections, with 46% believing that the forecasts for the 2024 elections were fake and smacked of a scam, as alleged by the Congress soon after the results. Others said that exit polls may be wrong but allegations of fraud are baseless. Three-fifths (60%) of BJP supporters trusted the exit polls and rejected claims of fraud. But 56% of Congress supporters believe that the exit polls were fake. Surveys indicate that trust in exit polls is closely linked to party loyalty, with BJP supporters showing greater confidence in their legitimacy.
Opinions on the frequency of elections and simultaneous state and national elections are mixed. Overall, one in three respondents (33%) believed that holding multiple election cycles is a waste of money and time, while one third (34%) said the status quo of phased elections strengthens democracy. Meanwhile, 19% expressed concern that such a move could cause problems, and the remainder (14%) were unfamiliar with the proposal. The Cabinet recently gave its approval to the idea based on the recommendations of a panel led by former President Ram Nath Kovind.
Older respondents were more likely to view multiple elections as useless, while post-millennial respondents were more likely to believe that staggered election cycles strengthen democracy. Political affiliation also plays a role: 41% of BJP supporters were of the view that multiple election cycles waste resources, compared to only 24% of Congress supporters, who were more likely to be in favor of sequential elections (39%).
The survey shows that perceptions of electoral issues are increasingly shaped by party affiliation. BJP supporters generally show greater trust in the ECI, EVMs and exit polls and are more likely to perceive media coverage as fair. On the contrary, supporters of Congress and smaller parties remain apprehensive and feel biased. Opinion is divided on the question of simultaneous elections and there is general consensus on what is expected from a coalition arrangement.
(The author is associated with the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi)
(This is the second part of a series about the findings of the 12th round of the survey. The first part looked at the impact of the 2024 elections on political preferences. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban, affluent netizens with 90% of respondents NCCS -A come under socio-economic category of consumers. Full methodology notes here,
in chart: How did BJP score a hat-trick despite tough competition from Congress?
[ad_2]
