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In the 18th Lok Sabha elections, the overwhelming majority enjoyed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for a decade ended. Although the party managed to retain power, its fate now depends on the support of its allies and the opposition has gained strength. The election results are also reflected in the reactions to the latest edition of mint Survey of urban Indians in July.
The 12th round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey found little change in the BJP’s approval rating in urban India, with 46% of respondents choosing it as their most preferred party. Congress improved to 15% in December 2023 from 11% in the previous round. Despite making its biggest gains in the four years since this question was included in the survey, the Congress remains in second place behind the BJP.
The survey involved 10,314 respondents from over 200 towns and cities and was conducted by mint In collaboration with survey partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research. Eleven such surveys have been conducted since 2018, each shedding light on the beliefs, choices and concerns of India’s young urban population. In the latest round, 45% of respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996), and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996).
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campaign impact
The survey suggested that the BJP has lost support among some deprived sections of the society. Its weakest support was among lower socio-economic groups (33%) and Scheduled Castes and Tribes (34%). (The BJP’s support base among the lower socio-economic strata was initially low.) The Congress saw an improvement in its support across all categories.
Much of the post-poll commentary blamed complacency for the BJP’s defeat. The survey found that the BJP reached more voters with its campaign than the Congress, but its mobilization efforts did not reach all its supporters, while the Congress overreached its supporters. One-third of the respondents said the BJP has reached out to them through door-to-door campaigns, phone calls and WhatsApp messages. Less than one-fourth said the same about Congress. The BJP’s mobilization was weakest among poor Indians and post-millennials.
The survey asked respondents to evaluate the first two terms of the Narendra Modi government. About 29% described the first term as better, while 22% had said the same in the previous term. One-fifth found the second term better, compared to 22% of the first. The share of those who said both conditions were equally good fell from 35% to 28%, while the share of those who said both conditions were equally bad increased from 12% to 15%.
return of opposition
The survey asked respondents for their views on various aspects of the revived opposition. The previous round had seen widespread distrust in the Congress’s ability to be a viable opposition. But has Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, now the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, emerged as a serious politician capable of reviving his party? About 54% of respondents agreed, compared to 49% when this question was last asked in the ninth round in December 2022. This suggests a limited improvement in Gandhi’s image, which is strongest among the lower half of the socio-economic ladder.
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What parliamentary strategy should the Congress adopt to counter the BJP-led coalition government? More than half (54%) said the party should play the role of a constructive opposition and be ready to compromise in Parliament for the good of the country.
The respondents were also asked their views on the Congress-led bloc, the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) and its ability to challenge the BJP-led government. Roughly two-fifths said the coalition would pose an effective challenge to the government throughout its term. In the December 2023 round of the survey, 29% had given a similar response to the question on India’s ability to pose an effective challenge to the BJP.
About 23% said the alliance should be cautious of an aggressive stance as it could be counterproductive, and 25% said some parties and leaders of the alliance could move in favor of the BJP.
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The data suggests that the BJP has slightly lost support among people from lower socio-economic strata – which is also indicated by the party’s low campaign reach among them – and Modi’s popularity may have peaked. The opposition’s image and perceptions of Rahul Gandhi as a challenger to the BJP have improved, but only marginally. Although the disparity between the leaders of the two main political alliances remains large, it is clear that neither side can afford to be complacent at this time.
(The author is associated with the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi)
(This is the first part of a series Regarding the findings of the 12th round of the survey. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban, affluent netizens, with 90% of respondents falling within the socio-economic category of NCCS-A consumers. Full methodology notes here.,
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