How can the border hurt Biden in the elections?

This mismatch is at the heart of the issue that could cause President Biden to lose the election. In 2016, Mr Trump faced “border chaos” until reaching the Republican nomination and then the presidency. At the time, he campaigned as if record numbers of migrants were crossing the border illegally. It wasn’t true then, but it is now.

There were approximately 250,000 attempts to cross the southern border in November alone. Most newcomers would have sought asylum and been left in the US to wait years for their claims to be adjudicated. Since Mr Biden became president, more than 3.1 million border crossers have been admitted. This is more than the population of Chicago. At least 1.7 million people have arrived undocumented or overstayed their visas. Republican governors have paid for migrants to go to places run by Democrats, exacerbating problems at the southern border further north. Their experience helps explain why voters trust Republicans to handle border security by a 30-point margin. This is the party’s biggest lead on any issue.

This is not all Mr Biden’s fault. When the US labor market is tight, the incentive for people to immigrate illegally increases. That’s why the numbers kept rising even during Mr. Trump’s tenure, until COVID-19 arrived and solved the problem for him. When travel became possible again in 2021, pent-up demand resulted in an increase in the number of people crossing the southern border. More than half of those crossing the border are from beyond Mexico and the northern part of Central America. Venezuelans form the largest part of this group. But thousands more now fly to the US from Russia (43,000 by September 2023), India (42,000) and China (24,000) and then attempt to cross. Often it is impossible to return them. China will not take back its citizens if the application is rejected.

However, some of the blame lies squarely on Mr Biden. Mr. Trump’s language about Mexico sending rapists across the border and his plans to build a wall along with cruelly separating children from their parents as a deterrent have radicalized some Democratic policymakers on immigration. made. He felt that public opinion was in his favor. Voters actually rebelled against Trumpism and support for immigration reached a new high while he was in office. When the new Democratic administration took power, its tendency was to do the opposite of Mr. Trump. Border wall work stopped. Democrats abandoned the Remain in Mexico policy, which forces asylum seekers to remain south of the border until officials make a decision on their application. As expected, illegal immigration increased.

Since the midterms in 2022, Mr Biden has quietly adopted some of Mr Trump’s policies. He has agreed to fill the gaps in the wall. Asylum seekers who attempt to cross the border anonymously will, with a few exceptions, have their applications automatically rejected. They must apply online before appearing. Yet Americans are unaware of these efforts, partly because Mr. Biden is eager to draw attention to his triangle lest his own side overwhelm him.

The President is running out of scope to do one thing and say another. The House of Representatives has combined a stringent immigration bill with funding for the war in Ukraine. The administration is angry because support for Ukraine makes economic and strategic sense for the United States, regardless of the country’s immigration policy. That is an error. Instead, in a system in which both sides use the advantages available to them, Mr Biden should see this as an opportunity.

Some of the Republican demands on immigration are reasonable. Most migrants crossing the southern border without visas do not crawl across the desert. They find a Border Patrol agent and submit an asylum claim. They must then pass a “credible fear” interview. Republicans want to raise the threshold for what counts as a credible threat. This is a worthy aim. Under Mr. Biden’s rules, fear of mass violence counts as a basis for an exemption. Contrast this with Spain, which rejects this test despite having a socialist prime minister.

Once that first test is passed, immigrants are usually released awaiting a future court date, as immigration courts are filled with cases. The average wait for a hearing is more than four years. Appeals may cause delays. Democrats would like money to hire more officers to process claims and more judges to deal with the backlog of cases faster. This is reasonable too.

There has to be a deal here. Yet each side distrusts the other’s intentions. Republicans say they won’t give more money to an administration they can’t trust to enforce immigration laws. Instead they are trying to impeach the Secretary of Homeland Security. Democrats look at Republican demands, such as that families coming into the country be detained indefinitely, and conclude that the negotiations are being set up to fail and so this is actually a vote against Mr Biden. Is a weapon. Chances are that both parties will give priority to campaigning rather than dealmaking.

don’t forget the crowd

This should worry Mr Biden. Our reporting from the Mexican side of the border shows that, if people believe Mr. Trump will win, many more people will try to cross into the US before his inauguration. Insecure borders weaken support for legal immigration and embolden restrictionist parties. Immigration could return Mr Trump to the White House, from where he could pull the US out of the 1951 refugee convention, causing it to collapse. Mr. Biden should call Republicans, roll up his sleeves, and set out to fix the border. This would be the right thing to do. This will also help their prospects.

Correction (February 5, 2024): A previous version of this article mistakenly put Kallstadt in Bavaria, not Rhineland-Palatinate, as it should be. Apologize.

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© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com

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Published: March 27, 2024, 06:00 PM IST