[ad_1]
Heavy rains have disrupted normal life in many parts of India, but this heavy rain has eased the pressure on electricity demand. Abundant rains can also increase the amount of water in reservoirs, which will provide relief to farmers who need hydropower generation and irrigation.
The southwest monsoon made its onset over the Kerala coast and northeast India two days and six days ahead of schedule on May 30, but slowed down after June 9. It reached northwest India on time on June 29, following which Delhi received its highest single-day rainfall in June in 88 years. Mumbai was no different.
A record in May
Peak power demand hit a record high of 250 GW on May 30 and remained high for most of June; however, it eased in July and has remained largely below the 220 GW mark. On Thursday, peak demand breached the 220 GW mark for the first time this month and peaked at 221 GW, according to the latest data from the Grid Controller of India. It fell below the 200 GW mark to 198 GW on July 6.
Falling temperatures have reduced demand for cooling, leading to increased consumption in May-June amid a prolonged heat wave in north and northwest India.
“Not just cooling demand, but also agriculture demand has slowed down in the form of heavy pumping for irrigation from groundwater. With the arrival of rains, farmers will be able to irrigate from canals and other underground sources. On the supply side, wind and hydropower projects will also pick up pace,” said Vikram V, vice-president and co-group head (corporate ratings), ICRA.
The reservoirs are filling up
The Central Water Commission said on July 11 that water storage in 150 reservoirs is 46.311 BCM (billion cubic metres), which is 26% of their total water storage capacity. However, this is less than 58.864 BCM at the same time last year, as well as the 10-year average of 51.724 BCM. Water storage in these reservoirs is now 79% of the storage a year ago and 90% of the normal or 10-year average storage.
With the arrival of rains, farmers will be able to irrigate from canals and other underground sources, besides, on the supply side, wind and hydropower projects will get a boost
It remains to be seen how much water the reservoirs will be filled with by rains during the remaining monsoon.
“It is too early to comment on this. The performance of other key sectors like agriculture and energy will depend on how the monsoon rains are and how it impacts reservoirs for three months. The southwest monsoon ensures water for domestic use, animal consumption and agriculture by filling up reservoirs throughout the year,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.
The recent rains will benefit those hydropower projects that are primarily rain-fed and based on reservoirs. In the last financial year, due to weak monsoon, hydropower generation could not start.
Adequate supply of coal
Despite the huge demand, coal availability at power plants has been largely adequate this year. Currently, domestic coal-based power plants have stocks for about 16.5 days of operations. Also on July 10, these domestic coal-based plants received 2.36 million tonnes of coal, which is equal to the quantity required as per their consumption.
ICRA’s Vikram said, “Due to the impact of monsoon rains this year as well as the high base effect, India may see a year-on-year decline in demand growth in Q2 and Q3 of FY25. Demand was higher in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal due to the delay in monsoon.” He added that demand is expected to contract around 6.5% in FY25.
Heavy rainfall likely in July
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on July 1 said India may receive above normal rainfall in July, with heavy rains likely to cause flooding in river valleys in the western Himalayan states and central parts of the country.
This is partly because the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has returned to neutral, and a cooler phase known as La Niña is expected to develop in the second half of the monsoon season (August–September).
La Niña, which means “little girl”, is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same area. It occurs every 3-5 years, and can sometimes occur in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and different weather patterns, resulting in flooding.
[ad_2]
