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SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — A California initiative to make shoplifting a felony for repeat offenders is shaping up as a contest over whether the state’s Democrats are tough enough on crime to keep their seats in Congress.
A broad coalition of law enforcement and retailers aims to crack down on retail theft in a state where videos of large groups of people breaking into stores and stealing openly have gone viral. A proposal is set to go on the November ballot that calls for tougher penalties for repeat shoplifters and drug dealers. The measure is set to be certified by the secretary of state on Thursday.
Top Democrats are fighting to kill the proposal because they worry it would disproportionately incarcerate low-income people and those with substance abuse problems. But they are also motivated by the political implications of the tough-on-crime initiative, which is bringing Republicans and conservative voters to the polls in large numbers.
“This is clearly Republicans’ intent to help turnout in the November election,” said Natasha Minsker, a consultant for the Social Justice Coalition, which opposes the initiative. “Democrats understand the danger here very well.”
Leaders of both parties agree that the results of California’s congressional elections could determine which party controls Congress in 2025. The toughest contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts in the Central Valley and Southern California, where President Joe Biden won in 2020.
“This ballot measure could literally have an impact on who controls the U.S. House of Representatives over the next two years,” said Republican consultant Rob Stutzman. “Democrats are concerned, and Republicans are hopeful, that it will make voting a little more conservative.”
Wesley Hussey, a political science professor at California State University, Sacramento, said many California voters are upset about crime rates and drug abuse, so this ballot measure could bring people to the polls who are not normally interested in voting. Some California election races could be decided by small numbers.
“There are a lot of marginal seats — seats that a party won by a thousand votes, or 2,000 votes, or 3,000 votes. And that could be enough to change three, four or five seats in the House,” he said.
It’s difficult to assess the scale of California’s retail theft problem because of a lack of local data. But many point to major store closures and everyday products like toothpaste being locked behind plexiglass as evidence of a crisis.
Crime is becoming a major political issue in California’s November election. San Francisco Mayor London Breed and Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón face tough re-election challenges against opponents who have criticized their approaches to crime and punishment.
The campaign committee representing Republicans in the House has attacked Democratic candidates in these crucial districts, portraying them as indifferent to robberies, auto thefts and safe streets.
Facing a tough political calculus in a crucial district north of Los Angeles, Democratic candidate George Whitesides broke with his party’s leadership last week and said he supports a crime ballot initiative that seeks to address not just retail theft but also some drug-related crimes.
“It’s absolutely clear that we need to get the attacks on our local businesses under control, and do more to keep our communities safe,” said Whitesides, who is trying to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Garcia.
Top California Democrats have been pressuring law enforcement and business groups to back the ballot initiative. They argued that their alternative, a legislative package of 13 bills aimed at professional online reselling schemes and auto thieves, would have a greater impact on crime without putting more people behind bars.
It’s unclear whether the package has enough votes to pass.
The coalition said Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office has tried to persuade business leaders to postpone their ballot proposal until 2026. But supporters said they can’t wait.
KCRA reported earlier this week that Democrats are now considering putting their own crime-related initiative on the November ballot to compete with the business groups’ proposal. The deadline is next week.
“It’s not clear whether anything will matter if voters are already highly motivated and inspired by the presidential race,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. “These can matter at the margins, and elections are won and lost at the margins.”
Associated Press writer Michael R. Blood contributed to this report from Los Angeles.
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