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According to a new independent study released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), Delhi can predict its ‘very poor and above’ air pollution days in the winter months (October-February) in 2023-24 and 2024-25 with more than 80 per cent accuracy.
The CEEW study released on October 8 found that the city’s air quality early warning system (AQEWS) can predict 83 out of 92 ‘very poor and above’ episodes (AQI >300) in winter 2023-24 and 54 out of 58 such episodes in 2024-25. Accurate forecasts empower policymakers, officials and citizens to take early action and protect public health on actions such as transportation and construction restrictions and school activities.
The CEEW study, ‘How well can Delhi predict air quality? Insights for India’s Decision Support Systems further found that the system’s ability to predict the most severe days (AQI >400) increased nearly fivefold in 2024–25, from just 1 in 15 days to 5 in 14 in 2023–24.
“India has made significant progress under the National Clean Air Programme, with improved monitoring networks and early warning systems now operational in many Indian cities. Forecasting and attribution science mean nothing unless they trigger timely, sector-proportional action. The high accuracy of Delhi’s early warning systems is a positive sign,” said Mohammad Rafiuddin, program lead, CEEW, a climate scientist based in New Delhi. The think tank said.
Updated emissions inventories could further improve accuracy, Rafiuddin. He said, “This will give us a better understanding of what pollutes Delhi’s air and in what quantities. India must scale up these systems with science, funding and transparency. Doing so will not only strengthen public trust but also ensure that Delhi’s Mitigation Plan 2025 is supported by the best available evidence.”
Air quality early warning systems (AQEWS) are already operational in eight Indian cities, including Ahmedabad, Pune and Jaipur, with many more set to be installed under the National Clean Air Program (NCAP) in the coming years. In 2018, following a severe smog and dust storm in Delhi, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) launched a joint initiative of AQEWS, IITM and IMD to provide forecasts three to ten days in advance.
Subsequently, IITM and IMD launched a Decision Support System (DSS) in 2021 to attribute regional and regional pollution sources to projected pollution levels.
The CEEW study found that these tools already meet many of the standards of an effective air quality decision support system by integrating diverse datasets and presenting them in accessible formats.
However, Delhi’s DSS currently operates only in winter, limiting its usefulness for tracking pollution sources throughout the year. To be fully effective, it should run year-round and include modeling scenarios, such as the impact of restricting certain vehicle types or potential air quality improvements from increased public transportation.
The high accuracy of Delhi’s early warning systems is a positive sign.
The CEEW study recommends systemic upgrading of Delhi’s forecasting tools and a roadmap for national replication. India should develop a national emissions inventory to be updated every 2-3 years. Public access to data will build citizen trust and enable researchers to conduct independent evaluations.
CEEW said that with targeted investments in high-resolution modeling and computing, Delhi’s AQEWS and DSS can move from predicting poor air quality to proactively preventing it.
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