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A United States think tank has raised the possibility of ‘armed conflict’ between India and Pakistan in 2026 due to ‘increasing terrorist activity’ in its latest year-end survey report.
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) report surveyed US foreign policy experts and said the second Donald Trump administration in the United States had ‘sought to defuse’ the conflict between New Delhi and Islamabad.
CFR is an American think tank focused on US foreign policy and international relations. According to CFR’s annual conflict risk assessment, US foreign policy experts are extremely concerned about conflict-related threats to US national security and international stability, which are likely to emerge or intensify in 2026.
‘Increased terrorist activities’
In the ‘Conflicts to Watch for in 2026’ report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts based on their likelihood and the potential damage they could cause to the United States. Identify interests and, for the first time, opportunities for preventive action.
The survey results were classified according to their ranking, and the contingencies were subsequently sorted into one of three preventive priority levels (I, II and III) according to their placement on the risk assessment matrix.
Accordingly, the India–Pakistan conflict is classified as Tier II with ‘medium probability, medium impact’. It reads, “Due to increase in terrorist activity, a fresh armed conflict has started between India and Pakistan.”
The report claims that the second Trump administration has sought to end several ongoing conflicts, such as those between the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Gaza Strip and Ukraine, as well as between India and Pakistan and Cambodia and Thailand.
Remember, India and Pakistan were involved in a four-day military conflict in May this year. Following the Pahalgam terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians, India carried out precision strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, termed ‘Operation Sindoor’.
“It is expected that the Trump Administration will not alienate key allies and partners in the coming months and will place greater emphasis on upstream efforts known to promote peace and stability, especially in areas critical to the United States,” the report said.
Donald Trump’s ceasefire claim
President Trump has repeatedly claimed that he intervened and prevented the conflict between India and Pakistan in May, a claim India has vehemently rejected.
In fact, India had said that on May 10, the Director General of Military Operations of the Indian Army was contacted by his Pakistani counterpart, leading to an understanding to stop firing and military action along the Line of Control following a four-day military standoff between the two South Asian neighbours.
Last week, President Trump made a similar statement and said, “We have prevented a potential nuclear war between Pakistan and India.”
Due to increasing terrorist activities, a fresh armed conflict has started between India and Pakistan.
‘High potential in Tier I; Rated ‘High Impact,’ the survey anticipates increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank over Israeli settlement construction, Palestinian political rights and a war in Gaza in 2026.
The CFR report also predicts that there is a ‘medium probability’ of armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan due to “revived cross-border terrorist attacks” in the Tier III category in 2026.
10 other conflicts identified
,Conflict has escalated between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank over Israeli settlement construction, Palestinian political rights, and the war in Gaza.
-The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war led to increased attacks on critical infrastructure and population centers on each side.
– U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups escalated into direct attacks in Venezuela, destabilizing the Maduro government.
-Renewed armed conflict between Iran and Israel, caused by Iranian efforts to reorganize its nuclear program and rebuild its regional network of anti-Israel proxy groups.
-A state or non-state entity conducts a highly disruptive, artificial intelligence-enabled cyber attack on U.S. critical infrastructure.
-The escalation of civil war in Sudan has led to mass atrocities, civilian displacement, and violence spilling over into neighboring countries.
-Violent clashes between armed groups and security forces have increased in Haiti, fueled by political dysfunction and the failure of international stabilization efforts.
– Renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by increasing cross-border terrorist attacks.
– Increased Chinese and Russian military activities in the Arctic could trigger an armed confrontation with the United States or other NATO allies.
-Renewed hostilities over unresolved territorial claims between Armenia and Azerbaijan attract Türkiye and other regional powers.
key takeaways
- The CFR report classifies the India–Pakistan conflict as Tier II, indicating moderate probability and impact.
- The report emphasizes the potential threat to US national security from the escalation of international conflicts.
- The second Trump administration is criticized for not adequately addressing ongoing conflicts, including India-Pakistan relations.
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