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Jeff Moon, former assistant United States trade representative to China during the Barack Obama administration, thinks US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs against China will be “limited and ineffective”.
Speaking to Bloomberg TV on October 11, Moon said he thought Donald Trump should have learned from withdrawing the tariffs in April that the US cannot maintain excessive duties against China for long.
Jeff Moon says Trump’s new tariffs will be ‘limited and ineffective’
Speaking on the channel’s ‘The Close’, Moon felt Trump’s move was one that has been shown to fail. When asked why he thought increased tariffs against China would be ineffective, Moon recalled how Trump had rolled back the 145 percent tariffs he imposed in April, which led to the “TACO” trade comment – aka the “Trump Always Chickens Out” meme.
Moon said, “The Chinese did not back down (in April), did not back down at all. And after that, Trump backed down, Trump backed down. And I think they should have learned from that experience that tariffs at such a high rate are not sustainable on the American side and there are many constituents who will strongly oppose.”
He said that for the Chinese side, while “people will be hurt”, the government will “play the nationalism card”, adding, “Frankly, the Chinese people will bear the pain, and so it won’t work out very well for Trump.”
China’s move to limit rare earth mineral exports…
Moon felt that Trump’s new tariffs have affected trade negotiations between the US and China “to some extent”. His opinion was that China’s ban on rare earth mineral exports was “planned” and “deliberate”, and came in response to continued US tariffs on various commodities, despite progress in negotiations.
“Over the past few months, it’s amazing how the rhetoric has changed. (U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott) Besant has talked about respectful exchanges with her Chinese colleague, and how respectful they all are. So the tone was modified, it was very business-like,” Moon said.
He said that on the Chinese side, they probably realized that, the US kept imposing sanctions and were “really angry at that”. He said the Chinese export restrictions were announced after a long national holiday, which meant that “these restrictions were planned and approved before the holiday. This is not an accident, it was something that was very deliberate.”
Insights from working with the Chinese: ‘Always responsive, self-reliant’
Moon felt that the US strategy in dealing with China has not changed over the years, but is now more aggressive. Giving insight into how he sees the Chinese handling such issues, he said, “The Chinese have always retaliated. When the Chinese feel they have been victimized they will retaliate 100% plus an additional 10%.”
He said they look for leverage in various forms. He said, “One way to do that is to try to divide and conquer. That is to find interests in the US that will oppose the government. For example, in this case the semiconductor industry. And try to do the same thing internationally, you know, try to find other countries that will object.”
He also believes that another consistent Chinese theme is self-reliance. He said, “Contrary to the Trump administration’s perception the Chinese – since the founding of the People’s Republic – have always talked about developing their own technology and never being dependent on foreigners. And so, there are a lot of these themes, we are getting at them in different flavors, I think more aggressively in this context.”
What might future negotiations between the US and China look like?
When asked whether talks between the US and China could be resumed and whether the US had anything to offer to bring China back to the negotiating table, Moon was optimistic.
“The Chinese want a lot of things from the U.S. They want the tariffs to be reduced specifically, the 20 percent tariff that Trump has put in place allegedly because of fentanyl. They do — despite what they say — want American chips. They’ve put a lot of restrictions in place right now, but they want those chips. And those restrictions can be lifted immediately,” he said.
He also pointed to China’s need for airplane parts, student visas and investment in the US. “There are many issues that are being discussed and there are things that the Chinese want from the US. However, they are systematically rearranging both their needs and their exports to avoid sanctions in the US,” he said.
US Trade Ambassador Jameson Greer said, ‘Prepare for trade war’
In particular, in an interview with Fox News, US Trade Ambassador Jameson Greer said that the US is “ready” for a trade war with China if needed.
He said, “Okay, we’ll see. It doesn’t have to happen. But if it has to happen, we’re prepared to do it. We think the American people are ready for it.”
Greer said the US wants to have a balanced relationship with China, “but he needs to change aspects of his economy where he overproduces, has unfair trade practices, and he tries to force everybody else to do what he wants.”
“I think we can have a better relationship. President (Donald Trump) and President Xi (Jinping) have a very good relationship. We actually have good conversations with our counterparts. But we’re in the midst of figuring out where each other’s directions are. And we need to see over the next few days if there’s a way forward. But if not, we’re going to take strong action as the president signals.”
As for whether that means the TikTok deal is a lock, Greer had no answer. “I believe this is a separate issue. It is not part of the discussion.”
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