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To hear the US and other long-established powers tell it, China has unparalleled influence over the region’s worst agents of disorder, starting with Iran, and an extraordinary need for stability in the Middle East. China is the world’s largest importer of both oil and liquefied natural gas, purchasing equally large quantities from Iran and Arab countries. It is a major regional investor, with tens of billions of dollars at stake in countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
As the world’s largest manufacturer, China is exceptionally exposed to rising global shipping rates. It’s a painful contrast when drone and missile attacks by Iranian-armed Houthi rebels in Yemen have closed the Red Sea and Suez Canal to container ships, forcing Europe-bound Chinese exports to take a costly detour around Africa. Have to put it.
With these arguments, the Biden administration and other Western governments have spent months telling China to stop relying on Iran and the Houthis. In meetings with Western officials, Chinese diplomats have been vague, hinting at messages to Iran while downplaying their influence in Tehran, and questioning whether Iran has more influence over the Houthis. Far from sending People’s Liberation Army (PLA) warships to join the US-led military coalition that escorted civilian ships and attacked Houthi radar and missile sites, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the US And British attacks lack UN protection. Council approval.
In late July the leaders of Fatah and Hamas, rival Palestinian factions, met in Beijing for unity talks, which Mr Wang called “an important historical moment”. Other Palestinian groups left the most complex questions unresolved, such as who should take control of security in Gaza after the war.
In Beijing, Western diplomats grumble that Chinese leaders have no illusions about their ability to solve the Middle East puzzle, but that they see an easy win in playing peacemaking host. Meanwhile, China knows that its call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and its vocal support for a Palestinian state coincide with the views of most countries, especially in the global South. The most cynical Western voices suggest that, although China would certainly prefer a peaceful world, today’s chaos would at least keep US aircraft carriers and diplomatic envoys usefully tied up in the Middle East rather than stirring up trouble in China’s backyard. Keeps.
For scholars in China’s foreign policy and security establishment, such Western analysis is regrettably crude. “How many US troops can the Houthis tie down in the Red Sea? “It’s not that simple,” says Hu Bo, a professor of maritime security at Peking University. Yes, the Red Sea closure faces higher costs for Chinese exporters, but there is no evidence that their losses are “unbearable.” The professor says that in the absence of a UN mandate, even moving ships into the Red Sea “means that China is against the Houthis, or against Iran”, and neutrality in the Middle East. To put it bluntly, the Red Sea crisis is “not at China’s door”, so the Chinese people wonder, “Why should we help the United States solve this problem.” Should?” reports the professor.
Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel, chides Western governments for arguing that, as the largest trading power on earth, China should attack Houthi targets in the name of maintaining freedom of navigation on the high seas. Should be prepared to do so or put pressure on Iran. , The root cause of the crisis, he says, is that “the Israelis are bombing and killing in Gaza.” Hope Mr. Zhou, now at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, warns that the frigates and destroyer ships the PLA will send will have limited air defense, asking whether such ships will be allowed to enter the raid. What will be the objective of sea and firing on Houthis? As far as China putting pressure on Iran: “The issue is, at what cost will you use your influence?”
An executive of a Chinese multinational company goes one step further. He argues that “we should be very careful about assuming disruption is bad for China.” When the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains and cargo-shipping markets, Chinese companies adapted quickly and snatched business from slower rivals, he said. “China likes stability, but when there is chaos they think not defensively but opportunistically.”
China needs no help calculating its interests
Mr Zhou sees “a grain of truth” in such arguments. He said Chinese businesses are active in unstable regions of Africa and the Middle East where it is difficult to make profits. Unlike Western companies, which need quick returns, Chinese companies will face difficulties to gain market share, he suggests. The objective is to get ahead of the competitors and subsequently receive a prize. He draws comparisons to the Long March of 1934–35, when Red Army troops crossed snow-covered mountains, rushing rivers and deadly swamps during the Chinese Civil War. war, knowing that their enemy, the larger, better-armed Nationalist army, would not pursue them.
To a surprising extent, today’s Chinese diplomats maneuver like Red Army guerrillas, and while achieving quick, cosmetic victories, carefully avoid the crises that could entangle China. China is a superpower with global interests. But it is run by the same Communist Party that survived the Long March by fighting and making a strategic retreat. Remember that history and China’s opportunism matter more.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com
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