How did all assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir since 2002 result in a hung mandate? Explain in 10 points | Mint

Jammu and Kashmir is going to hold assembly elections for the first time in a decade to elect a government after six years of central rule.

Voting will be held in three phases, the first phase will be held on September 18. The next two phases will be held on September 25 and October 1. The results will be declared on October 4.

This will be the shortest voting period in any assembly election held in Jammu and Kashmir since 2002. In 2002, the elections were held in four phases, in 2008 the elections were held in seven phases while in 2014, voting for the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir was held in five phases.

The PDP-BJP government formed in Jammu and Kashmir in 2018 did not last long as the BJP withdrew its support to former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2018. The erstwhile state has been under central rule since then.

The Centre abrogated Article 370 in 2019. The erstwhile state was bifurcated into two union territories – Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.

In December 2023, the Supreme Court upheld the constitutional validity of the Center’s decision to abolish Article 370. The court directed the central government to hold assembly elections by September 30, 2024.

The first assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir were held in 1951. The National Conference (NC) and the Congress were the dominant parties in the then state until 2002. In all elections since 2002, Jammu and Kashmir has seen a hung mandate and no party has won an absolute majority.

Here are details of the last three elections.

2002 Assembly Elections

National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah served his full term as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir in his government between 1996 and 2002.

The term of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly was six years under Article 370, which was later repealed. Until the repeal of Article 370 in 2019 and the subsequent delimitation, the Assembly had 87 seats, including Ladakh.

In the 2002 elections, the National Conference won 28 seats in the 87-member House while the Congress party won 20 seats. The PDP emerged as a major player for the first time and won 16 seats in the elections. The BJP won one seat in these elections. The assembly strength was 87 and the majority figure was 44.

And for the first time, PDP came to power in alliance with Congress party. Both the parties agreed to hold the CM post for three years each. The term of Jammu and Kashmir assembly was six years under Article 370 which was later abolished.

2008 Assembly Elections

The National Conference had won 28 seats in the 2008 assembly elections. It formed a coalition government with the Congress, which had won 17 seats in the 87-member assembly, including Ladakh.

In 2008, the PDP had won 21 seats, while the BJP had won 11. The remaining 10 seats were won by smaller parties and independents.

2014 Assembly Elections

In the 2014 assembly elections, the PDP emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats. All the seats won by the PDP were from the Kashmir Valley. The BJP came second with 25 seats. All the seats won by the BJP were from Jammu.

The PDP led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed decided to form an alliance with the BJP, an unexpected coalition between two parties with different ideologies.

In the 2014 elections, NC had won 15 seats while Congress had won 12 seats. The remaining seats went to other parties.

This was the last assembly election before the special status of the region was revoked in 2019 and Ladakh was separated as a Union Territory

Why the uncertain decision?

The erstwhile state has witnessed hung mandates due to different demographics in the Jammu and Kashmir divisions. Jammu is a predominantly Hindu region while Kashmir is a Muslim-majority division. While regional parties have been winning seats from Kashmir, the BJP has been successful in the Jammu region in previous assembly elections.

After delimitation in 2022, the number of assembly seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory increased to 90. Now Jammu has 43 seats and Kashmir has 47 seats, out of which nine seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Out of the seven new seats, six went to Jammu.

Even in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won both the seats in Jammu, while regional parties and an independent won three seats in Kashmir. It is a different matter that the BJP did not field its candidate on any seat in Kashmir in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

With less than a month left for the polling and about 45 days for the results to be declared, will the assembly in Jammu and Kashmir be indecisive or will there be a clear mandate? Only time will tell.