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A modeling study released Thursday said banning tobacco sales to people born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent about 1.2 million lung cancer deaths by the end of the century.
According to the World Health Organization, smoking is responsible for about 85 percent of lung cancer cases, the deadliest cancer worldwide.
A new study from WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) says that if current trends continue, there will be about 3 million deaths from lung cancer among people born from 2006 to 2010.
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But if tobacco sales were banned for these 650 million people, about 1.2 million deaths could be prevented by 2095, estimated modeling research published in The Lancet Public Health journal.
The study, one of the first aimed at assessing the impact of a tobacco-free generation, was based on data on cancer cases and deaths from 185 countries.
The research found that more than 45 percent of lung cancer deaths in men worldwide could be prevented, and about 31 percent of deaths in women could be prevented.
“This gap is linked to the tobacco industry’s gender-targeted marketing over the past few decades,” IARC researcher and study co-author Isabelle Soerjomataram said in a statement.
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Plans are already underway
But in some regions – North America and parts of Europe, Australia and New Zealand – ending tobacco sales could prevent more deaths among women than among men, modeling has suggested.
Women in Western Europe had the highest number of lives saved – 78 percent, while the highest rate for men was in Central and Eastern Europe, at about 75 percent.
The study cautions that “the deaths we estimated could not have been prevented may be caused by other risk factors associated with lung cancer”, such as exposure to air pollution or second-hand smoke. .
Tobacco-free production initiatives have already been implemented in some countries, such as New Zealand and Australia, and parts of the United States.
In 2022, New Zealand became the first country to ban the sale of cigarettes to people born after 2008. But late last year, the country’s new conservative government announced it planned to eliminate the measure.
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In contrast, Britain’s new Labor government has been supporting former Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to ban the sale of cigarettes to anyone born after January 2009.
The authors of the IARC study nevertheless stressed that policies for a tobacco-free generation were not enough to deal with the tobacco health crisis, especially for current smokers.
He also called for proven measures such as increasing taxes on cigarettes, creating a more smoke-free environment as well as support for efforts to quit.
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