US gas-fired electricity boom reveals major emissions payments in 2024: Maguire

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author and Reuters market analyst.)

LITTLETON, Colorado, Jan 8 (Reuters) – For the first time, more than 1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) was released from U.S. gas-fired power stations in a single year through 2024, setting a new pollution threshold for the world. Is a symbol. Largest gas producer and consumer.

The emissions figure of 1.003 billion tonnes is a 3.6% increase from 2023, and a 40% increase in gas-fired power generation emissions since 2015, according to Amber data.

Those numbers look big, but they lack important context. Discharges from the U.S. fleet of coal-fired power stations were less than 620 million tons last year, a record low due to the smallest coal-fired power generation levels on record.

And since U.S. coal plants emit 77% more CO2 per unit of electricity than gas-fired plants, the addition of less coal production shows that despite increased gas emissions the U.S. power system actually contributed significantly to overall pollution. Have made the cut.

Due to reductions in coal use, total US electricity emissions from all fossil fuels are projected to increase by only 0.5% from 2023 to 2024, to 1.64 billion tons, and decrease by 19% from 2015.

What’s more, emissions loads have declined despite total electricity production reaching an all-time high in 2024.

Rapid growth in electricity generation from clean energy – including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear assets – has helped offset consumption growth in recent years.

Total clean electricity generation in 2014 was 35% higher than in 2015, largely due to a nearly eightfold increase in solar power generation and a more than doubling of output from wind farms during that period.

But fossil fuels remain the backbone of the US generation system, supplying just over 58% of total electricity last year.

Natural gas accounted for a record 73% of that fossil share, while coal plants supplied the remaining 26% or more.

Power companies plan to further cut coal use over the remainder of this decade, as well as add more renewable energy to the generation mix to ensure that overall electricity supply remains in line with demand. .

But electricity suppliers are poised to rely even more heavily on natural gas, particularly for system-balancing needs whenever intermittent generation from renewable energy sources falls short of overall demand needs.

According to Ember, more than 30 US states rely on natural gas for 30% or more of their electricity needs.

Thirteen of those states rely on gas for 50% or more of their electricity, while an additional nine states use gas between 15% and 30% of their electricity.

Additionally, according to Global Energy Monitor, approximately 50 gas-fired plants are in pre-construction or under construction across the US, with a combined capacity of approximately 30,000 MW.

Heavy reliance on legacy and new power plants and pipelines means natural gas will remain an integral part of the U.S. power system for decades, even as renewable generation totals continue to grow.

This means that total emissions from natural gas use in the US will also continue to increase.

But some of those gas plants will be used to replace retired coal power stations, which have already been operating an average of 45 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

This means that as more gas capacity comes on line, some of the most polluting US coal plants will close over roughly the same period, helping to curb overall fossil fuel pollution even if the US power system continues to be gassy. Doing.

The opinions expressed here are the opinions of the Reuters market analyst writer.

(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Sonali Paul)